Rod's Weather Headlines

The forecast for light snow in Portland, likely snow at the coast and heavier amounts south of Salem turns out to be correct.  The big surprise to this forecaster are the high amounts in the Coast Range near Corvallis.  Below are the latest snow totals from the National Weather Service:

Philomath, Or. (near Corvallis in the Coast Range):  9.0 inches

Corvallis, OSU campus:  9.0 inches

Albany:  8.0 inches

Eugene:  3.0 inches

Astoria:  2.5 inches

Newport:  3.0 inches

Vernonia:  1.75 inches

Portland:  Dusting

Ridgefield, Wa:  1.0 inch

Longview:  1.0 inch

Vancouver:  Dusting

Salem:  1.0 inch

There are reports of 2-4 inches in the north Coast Range and similar amounts off of highway 30 near Scappoose. (The photo shows a snow covered beach this morning.)  Very cold air through this weekend will keep roadways icy and dangerous.  Many areas may not get above freezing until Monday afternoon.

Portland's coldest fall night breaks two records! The temperature at PDX last evening dropped to 27 degrees, breaking a record of 28 degrees for December 3rd.  The Weather Service confirms the coldest temp at the airport this morning was 22 degrees, breaking the record of 23, set back in 1972.  Below are a few unofficial low temperatures from this morning: 

Portland (PDX):  22 degrees Record Low

Hillsboro:  21

Battle Ground:  21

Sherwood:  19

Salem:  21

McMinnville:  26

Oregon City:  22

Canby:  26

Timberline Lodge:  4

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The all-time December record low for the airport is 6 degrees back in 1964.  The coldest PDX temperature on record is -3 below zero back in February of 1950.  More cold nights are in the forecast, so bundle up!

December begins with heavy rain!  24-hour rainfall ended early Monday are listed below:

Portland:  .76"

Salem:  .80"

Kelso 1.19"

Aurora:  1.44"

Hood River:  2.47"

Astoria:  1.08"

Tillamook: 1.23"

Newport:  1.03"

Scappoose:  .71"

Vancouver:  .67"

Hillsboro:  .61"

McMinnville:  .87"

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Sunday's rain was needed after a dry November that saw only 3.05" of rain at PDX, which was -2.58" below normal for the month. 

The first low snow levels of the season are set to arrive before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend comes to an end.  Motorists should realize conditions will be dry to start holiday travels, but turn stormy for the drive home. A strong cold front tracking to arrive Sunday morning will drop snow levels below Cascade passes during the afternoon. Snow levels will be near 1,000' Monday!  Cascade travel will likely be impacted with heavy accumulating snow in the forecast.  Motorists driving over the mountains should prepare for all out winter conditions before the weekend comes to an end. The low snow level may also produce snow and ice over the high Coast Range passes Sunday night and Monday. 

Here are the elevations for the most traveled highways in our local region, starting with the Cascades:

1.  Government Camp, US Highway 26:  4,026 feet

2.  Santiam Pass, Hwy 20:  4,817 feet

3.  Willamette Pass, Hwy 58:  5,128 feet

4.  Siskiyou Pass, I-5 south:  4,310 feet

5.  Snoqualmie Pass, I-90:  3,022 feet

Coast Range Passes:

1.  Highway 26:  1,600 feet

2.  Murphy Hill, Hwy 18:  760 feet

3.  Dudlee Hill, Hwy 20:  860 feet

Keep in mind, if current forecast temperatures for the Cascades are correct, Sunday highs in the 20s at Government Camp would likely lead to snow packed roadways with ODOT putting down rock and plowing as needed.  Traction tires and or chains should be carried.

Please keep updated and have a safe holiday weekend.

Comet ISON has been billed as the "comet of the century."   Recent observations indicate the comet is increasing brightness and should be a naked eye object in the coming days.  As of November 19th, the comet was less than 43 million miles from the Sun and will be within Mercury's obit on November 23rd.  

On November 28th, ISON will make its closest pass to the Sun, coming within 680,000 miles of our solar system's brightest object.  At that time, the comet will either break apart because of the Sun's intense energy or survive the journey and continue around the Sun.

Predicting the brightness of a comet is difficult, but scientist believe ISON will reach peak brightness near November 28th.  Still, several factors may make viewing difficult.  OMSI will host a Comet viewing party Saturday, November 23rd at Milo McIver State Park in Estacada from 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m.  Telescopes will be set up and the public is invited.

Sunday was day 8 and counting of the amazing dry streak.  What's more is that forecast models continue to show possible dry weather through the end of the month!  If so, the dry streak could reach 20 days, lasting through November 1st. 

So far, PDX has seen measurable rainfall 6 days this month.  If dry weather holds, October would finish with 25 dry days.  The all-time PDX record is 27 October days with no rainfall back in 1987.  Forecast models show rain showers returning either the last few days of October or the first few days of the new month.  I do see hints of a stretch of 5 days of hefty rain totals developing in the first 10 days of November. 

Outlooks from the National Weather Service show little confidence for the November forecast.  My forecast works shows a likely chance of above normal rainfall developing.  Of course November is the traditional kick-off of the rainy season.

A penumbral lunar eclipse will take place this evening.  Our skies will be clear but the timing of the sky show will take place mostly before the moon rises here on the west coast.  The eclipse will begin at 2:51 pm local time with peak coverage of the moon by the earth's shadow at 4:50 and the conclusion of the moon leaving the shadow cast by our planet at 6:47 pm PDT. 

The bad news for Portland is that the moon will not rise in the east until 6:11 pm, meaning the eclipse will be nearly over by the time the moon starts to rise.  None the less, look to the east to see a partial shadow cast over the moon for about 30 minutes as our favorite rock rises in the sky. 

Neutral enso conditions are projected for the 2nd year in a row.  The "neutral" state refers to near normal equatorial Pacific water temperatures.  My winter forecast projection is for the months of November, December, January, February and March.  The research I have compiled focuses on neutral seasons with high rain totals during the combined months of September and October.  Years I am using for comparison begin with the fall months of:  1979, 1981, 1986, 1996 and 2005. 

Here is my Portland winter forecast:

1.  Precipitation:  Wetter than normal by 5.90 inches, which would be an extra month of rain.

2.  Valley Snowfall: Odds favor no big events with a season total of 1-3 inches.  The data set does include a 20% chance of one 8 inch snow event.  Last winter only saw a trace of snowfall.

3.  Temperatures:  An overall temperature average of 1/2 degree above normal.  Month to month data:  November near normal; December & January above normal;  a cool February and a normal March.

4.   Extreme Weather Events:  A high chance of 1-3 valley wind events with south peak gusts 50-70 mph.  The  comparison winter of 2005-2006 had two valley wind events with 50 mph gusts.  The fall of 1981 had a mini - Columbus Day storm with 71 mph winds in Salem and Portland.

5.   Cascade snowfall:  Projecting a good year with 525 inches of snow or more at Timberline Lodge.  Normal for the resort is a seasonal total of 400-500 inches.  Last year saw 545 inches fall.  Mt.  Hood has not seen a low snow total since 2004-2005.  The last 8 winter seasons have averaged 606 inches at the lodge.

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Keep in mind, seasonal forecasting has a skill roughly 20% better than pure chance.  Here is my report card from last winter's forecast: 

1.  I projected high confidence of no significant valley snow.  (Correct)

2.  Below normal rainfall for the water year:  (Wrong)  My projected total was 9.00 inches too low.

3.  Mt. Hood snowfall:  I projected up to 500 inches of at Timberline.  (Correct)  The total at the lodge was 545 inches, which is slightly higher than my projection, but still pretty close.

4.  I said we were not due for and not expecting any extreme weather events.  (Correct)

If my winter forecast is correct, the metro valley will see a wet winter with a few decent wind events  and most likely a few brief snowfalls, although one major snow event looks possible. 

Happy fall and winter season, 

Rod Hill

Our late September storm was as fierce as advertised.  Weekend rain totals at PDX reached 2.69 inches, setting daily rainfall records for both Saturday and Sunday.  As of midnight Sunday night, the airport had 5.06 inches of September rain, which breaks the old PDX all-time record of 4.30 inches, set back in 1986.  The following is a list of new all-time Sept. rainfall records.  The totals are accurate as of Sunday evening, courtesy of the National Weather Service: 

Astoria Sept. 2013:  10.10 inches (old record 8.66 - 1906)

Hillsboro Sept. 2013:  5.75 inches (old record 3.68 - 1945)

Portland Downtown, KGW Sept. 2013:  6.21 inches (old record 5.52 - 1927

Salem Sept.  2013:  5.81 inches (old record 5.52 - 1927)

Vancouver Sept.  2013:  4.66 inches (likely to break the record of 4.88 back in 1911)

McMinnville Sept.  2013:  5.00 inches (current record is 7.58 back 1996)

The first of two weekend storm fronts brings heavy rains and damaging wind.  As of 7:30 Saturday evening, PDX reports .96 inches of rain, bringing the monthly total to 3.33 inches.  The all-time September PDX rainfall record is 4.30 inches back in 1986.  The airport reported peak south sustained winds of 33 mph and a peak gust of 43 mph. 

Highest rain totals from the metro valley include:

Tigard:  2.14 inches

Hillsboro: 1.70

Beaverton: 1.36

McMinnville: 1.36

Salem:  .99 (daily record)

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Other rain totals:

Astoria  3.52 inches (record for the date)

Mt. Hebo  5.39 inches (Coast Range)

Timberline Lodge 4.56 inches

Longview  1.84 inches

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Peak Wind Gusts:

Lincoln City:  75 mph (12:30 pm)

Newport:  65 mph

Astoria:  54 mph

Timberline Lodge:  47 mph

Mt. Hood 7,000 Feet:  79 mph

Salem:  46 mph

I-5 & Division:  46 mph

Fremont Bridge 34 mph

Most of the Portland metro reported peak gusts between 30-45 mph.

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A 2nd storm front will arrive Sunday afternoon.  Heavy rain and gusty winds will again be likely.  Please keep updated.  A 2nd round of weather will again bring potential property damage, high water spots and power outages.