Rod's Weather Headlines

Ice Storm likely to hit Thursday afternoon

By Rod Hill on 2022-12-20

A significant accumulation of freezing rain and sleet is set to move into the I-5 corridor during the day Thursday. After a dry start to the day, light icy precipitation will slowly develop Thursday afternoon. Due to cold temps in the low to mid 20s and gusty east winds, the initial wave of moisture may evaporate. Keep in mind, it does not take much ice to make travel difficult. Right now, getting home by Thursday noon in Portland and Salem is the best advice.

Futurecast shows (salmon color) steady, widespread freezing rain and or sleet falling Thursday evening at 9:00 pm. Ice is expected in the west gorge and snow takes hold around Hood River. Notice rainy pockets (green color) along the immediate coast but also icy locations. Precipitation may break up from time to time, but enough total ice is expected through the day Friday for much of the I-5 corridor to see 1/4" icing or possibly heavier. Snow in the central and east gorge could stack up to 6" of fresh snow Thursday night through Friday.

A dry Wednesday with Arctic air arriving during the day will set the stage for 2-3 days of icy precipitation. Valley temperatures Thursday will hold in the low to mid 20s with rain falling from a warmer air mass aloft and freezing into sleet on the way down or freezing rain upon surface contact. One will have to get to 4,000' over the Cascades to find a snow transition, meaning all precip below 4,000 will be rain freezing into ice, including over the Coast Range. Heaviest precipitation in terms of ice accumulation will fall Thursday night through Friday night.

While parts of the Willamette Valley may see warming on Friday with ice changing to rain, areas impacted by gusty east winds will see sleet and freezing rain through Saturday morning, followed by warming during the afternoon as a weather front arrives and scours out the coldest air as winds veer to the west. I should mention east winds will pick up during our dry Wednesday and blow 15-30 mph at times Thursday through Saturday morning, keeping cold air in place.

The source of the cold air is a large Arctic air mass (seen in purple) Thursday at 1:00 pm that will brush through eastern Washington and Oregon has it shifts southward across the midwest. The air mass will produce widespread cold of 30 degrees below normal are temperatures across the country. East winds will pick up Wednesday, advecting cold air into the day Saturday.

Widspread warming will take hold Saturday night behind a Pacific weather front. Christmas Day may warm to 50 degrees with rain showers.

(Graphics for this story are compliments of KGW TV)

Rod Hill

Tracking possible Friday sleet and freezing rain

By Rod Hill on 2022-12-19

A large Arctic air mass will shift southward across the northern Rockies and the midwest Wednesday and Thursday, dropping all the way into Texas. Our local area will see gusty east winds develop on the back, west side of the Arctic air mass, possibly setting the stage for hours of freezing rain and or sleet Thursday overnight and Friday.

Weather models show Thursday night temps in the low to mid 20s as moisture arrives in a westerly flow off of the Pacific. Cold valley air at the lowest elevations would freeze liguid rain into sleet and or freezing rain through Friday morning and possibly into the afternoon, bringing hours of ice accumulation and making travel extremely difficult.

The timeline of warming at this point is in question, but warmer air is expected Saturday and Christmas Day as snow levels rise above Cascade passes.

Rod Hill

First chance of Portland snow this week

By Rod Hill on 2022-11-27

Early Sunday Morning Update For Cold Air And Valley Snow Chance:

Increasing rain over the next 1-2 hours as the cold front arrives.  South winds are gusty in the region from the coast to the valley, 15-30 mph and will pick up in the coming hours in the gorge.  A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for the Cascades through 10:00 a.m. Monday for heavy snow of 12-18 inches, including a foot at pass level.  Snow levels will lower from 4,000’ mid-morning to 2,000’ this afternoon behind the cold front. 

TODAY:  Steady temps most locations as colder air behind this morning’s cold front arrives.  Winds will veer to the northwest through mid-morning and ease to 10-25 mph during the day.  A period of increasing to steady rain through mid-morning will break into showers or occasional rain during the day.  Again steady temps mostly in the mid 40s this afternoon all areas.

TONIGHT:  Clouds, likely rain showers continue with northwest winds calming to 5-20 mph  Low temps will drop into the mid to upper 30s from the coast to the valley and closer to freezing in the gorge where a transition to snow showers is expected.  Light snow accumulations Hood River to The Dalles will be possible. 

MONDAY:  Numerous morning showers will taper off into just a few scattered showers during the afternoon hours. High temps will hold in the low to mid 40s and closer to 40 degrees in the gorge.  Winds will be northwest 5-15 mph, breezy to 25 in the gorge and at the beach.  Early morning snow showers in the gorge will be a wet mix during the day. 

MONDAY NIGHT- TUESDAY:  All looks dry Monday night and Tuesday morning with breaks in the cloud cover leading to foggy pockets as winds calm.  Early temps will be freezing to near freezing in most areas.  During the day Tuesday, clouds thicken ahead of a warm front.  Light rain develops at the coast around noon and as early as 2:00 pm in the valley.  Daytime highs will be 40-45 from the coast to the valley and upper 30s to 40 in the gorge.  The warm front with a south breeze Tuesday night will hold surface temps mid to upper 30s in the valley with rain overnight and rain on Wednesday. 

The first chance of snow showers and possible light coverage in the valley will be Thursday morning and again Friday early morning and Saturday morning.  All 3 instances look to be rain showers during the day and snow showers at night and early morning, melting as daytime temps warm into the 40s. 

The map below shows the Winter Storm Warning over the Cascades, issued by NWS.

Rod Hill  

Wind Advisory For Strong East Winds

By Rod Hill on 2022-11-17

NWS issues a Wind Advisory (light brown shade) for the Portland and Vancouver metro areas today through 7:00 a.m. Friday.  Gusty east winds 15-30 mph will return for much of the valley.  The east side near the gorge could see 40-50 mph gusts.  Also high winds of 40-50 mph are expected at elevations near and above 500 feet in the east wind zone out of the gorge, including Prune Hill and the West Hills.  The more golden brown shade is a High Wind Warning for the west gorge where I-84 drivers may experience peak winds of 50-60 mph.  Areas of elevation in the gorge may see gusts top 60 mph.  Crown Point has already reported an 87 mph gust this week and winds today could near 100 mph.  

The gray shade on the map is an Air Stagnation Advisory.  Valley air quality at this hour is mostly good to moderate.  The green shade is a Freezing Fog Advisory this morning for central Oregon.

The extreme east wind will calm a bit Friday and more so on Saturday.  A return to a calmer westerly Pacific flow arrives Sunday as rain becomes possible for several days into the holiday week. 

Rod Hill 

Atmospheric River To Bring Friday Rain & Wind

By Rod Hill on 2022-11-03

An Atmospheric River is taking aim at the Northwest with hours of mostly steady rain expected Thursday night, Friday and Friday night. Atmospheric Rivers are elongated plumes of precipitable moisture in the Pacific that channel into a location from as little as 12 hours to at times 3 days. These events have the potential to deliver flooding rainfall depending on the duration of the episode.

This time around, a leading warm front will bring to our region Thursday night, hours of steady rain Friday daytime and hours of heavy rain rates Friday evening. The relatively short duration of heaviest rain between Friday 3:00 pm and the midnight hour should prevent river flooding except for spotty locations.

Weather models show event totals nearing 4.00" along the coast, reaching 2.00" in the I-5 corridor and 4-6" in the mountains. The totals may cause minor flooding of smaller and waterways Friday overnight into Saturday morning. The main widespread impact will likely be ponding of water of roadways and typical low spots or locations with pour drainage.

Weather models show in bright colors the heaviest rain falling Friday evening. Weather models suggest extreme rain rates between 4:00 and 10:00 pm. Localized areas could see an inch of rain in an hour, leading to rapid high water issues. A blend of weather models suggest Portland and Salem could see as much as 2-3" of total rainfall if extreme rain rates develop over a period of several hours.

In addition to heavy rain, gusty southwest winds will blow. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for much of the I-5 corridor in effect Friday, ending 1:00 a.m. Saturday. Gusty winds between 35-50 mph are expected. The strong wind gusts of 40 mph or higher often bring down tree limbs leading to power outage.

Snow levels will rise Thursday overnight to 6,000 feet and will jump to 8,000 feet Friday, bringing inches of heavy rain to Mt. Hood and the Cascades.

A trailing cold front will clear the Willamette Valley early Saturday morning, ending the high wind threat west of the Cascades and breaking rainfall into scattered showers. Travelers should be prepared for heavy snow over the Cascades Saturday overnight and Sunday with snow levels lowering to near 2,000 feet.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

Winter Outlook 2022-2023

By Rod Hill on 2022-11-01

For the 3rd time since records have kept track of so called El Nino and La Nina dating back to 1950, a rare 3rd consecutive La Nina season is projected by NOAA. The following outlook is based on a moderate La Nina transitioning to Neutral conditions this coming spring. The graphic shows La Nina November - March averages based on intensity of the cycle:

I believe this winter season will see near normal precipitation, falling between a moderate and weakening La Nina. Below is my month to month forecast prediction:

La Ninas are the winter cycle that most heavily favors outbreaks of Arctic Air.

Valley snowfall is likely the biggest headline in terms of what people want to know and here is my call this year:

La Ninas heavily favor a good Mt. Hood snowpack and this season should be no exception:

You can watch my KGW on-air presentation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPIbbQoIC2c

Rod Hill

Air Quality Unhealthy, Weekend Rain Will Help

By Rod Hill on 2022-10-19

Some of the worst air quality of the season today thanks to an easterly flow pattern bringing wildfire smoke over the valley. The maps from Oregon & Washington DEQ shows many reporting sites from Salem to Longview as "RED" or unhealthy for all age and health groups. More of a westerly wind flow Thursday should bring some relief and of course the Friday afternoon cold front will bring rain and west breezes will help cleanse the air into the weekend.

Rod Hill

September Temperature Breaks Record and Water Year Climate Report

By Rod Hill on 2022-10-01

Portland (PDX) September climate report:  

Average high 80.9°, 3rd warmest 
Average low 58.1, warmest all time
Average mean 69.5, warmest all time and 4.1 degrees above normal.  

Remember August mean temperature of 75.1°, set the record for the warmest of any month at PDX all time.   

October is starting off with high temps a good +10° above normal .  No rain expected this coming week.  

Portland Water Year ended September 30th:  41.16", +4.25 above normal (Oct 1 - Sept 30)

Number of summer season 90 degree days or hotter:  29 (record of 31 days in 2018 stands)

-Rod

Fire danger lowers, east wind calms

By Rod Hill on 2022-09-11

Lower fire danger today (Sunday), Air Quality Advisory for south Willamette Valley and areas generally south of Salem. Expecting wildfire haze to thin a bit over Salem, Portland and Vancouver. East winds have calmed after seeing 40 mph wind gusts through the gorge and over the Cascades. Metro valley high temperatures will warm into the 80s this afternoon with variable light winds to 15 mph.

Rod Hill

Red Flag Warning - High Fire Danger

By Rod Hill on 2022-09-10

Red Flag Warning for high fire danger continues until 11:00 pm this evening (Saturday).  East winds met the minimum threshold of the forecast in most locations yesterday.  KGW.com has news of a brush fire that sparked near Estacada at Milo McIver State Park, prompting level 3 - go now evacuations.  Air Quality is mostly in the moderate range this morning.  You can see smoky haze over downtown Portland.  Here are a few Friday peak east wind gust reports:  Mt.  Hood Meadows 43 mph, PDX 41, Salem 29, Hillsboro 36, McMinnville 30.  Salem topped out at 93 degrees and Portland reached 89 on Friday.  

Oregon Air Quality Saturday Morning.  (Moderate quality reported north through Longview.)

Today's forecast calls for low to mid 90s most locations of the valley with east winds in the valley 5-25 mph with higher gusts to 40 near the gorge and other typical east wind areas.  The dry east wind will again produce afternoon humidity levels between 10-20 %.  Calmer, variable winds expected Sunday.   -Rod