By Rod Hill on 2014-05-19
If summer outlooks from the National Weather Service are correct, Portland and much of the Northwest will melt under above normal temperatures this June, July and August. The metro valley could experience its first hot summer since the record year of 2009. Normally, Portland experiences 55 days each year with 80 degree heat and 11 days reaching 90 or hotter.
While outlooks are not specific to high temperatures, one would conclude Portland will see a likelihood of 12-20 days with 90 degree heat in the coming months. My research shows this summer's projected Enso pattern is consistent with past years of record heat here in the Willamette valley. The so called Enso outlooks show a neutral pattern this spring, developing into an El Nino this summer and possibly strengthening this fall. This described pattern mirrors conditions in play during the record heat of 2009 when PDX set the all-time record for 90 degree days with 24. The extreme heat summers of 2006 and 2003 had similar oceanic temperatures in play.
As our region braces for a hot summer, June rainfall will be a key factor in shortening or extending this year's wildfire season. The number of lightning strikes is unpredictable and a key factor in the number of fire starts.
Rod Hill
Portland's first 90 degree day of the year sets a record!