By Rod Hill on 2014-04-29
A large slosh of warm water is migrating toward south America in the equatorial waters of the Pacific. Latest observations indicate surface water temps are 9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. If the warm water area holds together and continues to migrate to the east, an El Nino pattern would be expected next winter. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Nino Watch, which means current oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favorable for the development of an El Nino within the next six months.
El Nino winters are known for warmer and drier than normal weather here in the Pacific Northwest. A subtropical jet often develops across California, bringing heavy rains to the state and possibly Arizona, parts of Texas and the deep south.
A detailed winter forecast for out local area is still months away, but I will be watching the equatorial Pacific water temperatures for strong clues of what we should expect.
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